|Publication Type||Journal Article|
|Year of Publication||2018|
|Authors||Rosellini, AJ, Liu, H, Petukhova, MV, Sampson, NA, Aguilar-Gaxiola, S, Alonso, J, Borges, G, Bruffaerts, R, Bromet, EJ, de Girolamo, G, de Jonge, P, Fayyad, J, Florescu, S, Gureje, O, Haro, JM, Hinkov, H, Karam, EG, Kawakami, N, Koenen, KC, Lee, S, Lépine, JP, Levinson, D, Navarro-Mateu, F, Oladeji, BD, O'Neill, S, Pennell, B-E, Piazza, M, Posada-Villa, J, Scott, KM, Stein, DJ, Torres, Y, Viana, MC, Zaslavsky, AM, Kessler, RC|
|Date Published||2018 02|
|Keywords||Adolescent, Adult, Child, Child, Preschool, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Female, Health Surveys, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Internationality, Life Change Events, Logistic Models, Male, Middle Aged, Recovery of Function, Retrospective Studies, Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic, Time Factors, World Health Organization, Wounds and Injuries, Young Adult|
BACKGROUND: Research on post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) course finds a substantial proportion of cases remit within 6 months, a majority within 2 years, and a substantial minority persists for many years. Results are inconsistent about pre-trauma predictors.
METHODS: The WHO World Mental Health surveys assessed lifetime DSM-IV PTSD presence-course after one randomly-selected trauma, allowing retrospective estimates of PTSD duration. Prior traumas, childhood adversities (CAs), and other lifetime DSM-IV mental disorders were examined as predictors using discrete-time person-month survival analysis among the 1575 respondents with lifetime PTSD.
RESULTS: 20%, 27%, and 50% of cases recovered within 3, 6, and 24 months and 77% within 10 years (the longest duration allowing stable estimates). Time-related recall bias was found largely for recoveries after 24 months. Recovery was weakly related to most trauma types other than very low [odds-ratio (OR) 0.2-0.3] early-recovery (within 24 months) associated with purposefully injuring/torturing/killing and witnessing atrocities and very low later-recovery (25+ months) associated with being kidnapped. The significant ORs for prior traumas, CAs, and mental disorders were generally inconsistent between early- and later-recovery models. Cross-validated versions of final models nonetheless discriminated significantly between the 50% of respondents with highest and lowest predicted probabilities of both early-recovery (66-55% v. 43%) and later-recovery (75-68% v. 39%).
CONCLUSIONS: We found PTSD recovery trajectories similar to those in previous studies. The weak associations of pre-trauma factors with recovery, also consistent with previous studies, presumably are due to stronger influences of post-trauma factors.
|Alternate Journal||Psychol Med|
|PubMed Central ID||PMC5758426|
|Grant List||R01 DA016558 / DA / NIDA NIH HHS / United States |
R01 MH093612 / MH / NIMH NIH HHS / United States
R03 TW006481 / TW / FIC NIH HHS / United States
R01 MH069864 / MH / NIMH NIH HHS / United States
R01 MH061905 / MH / NIMH NIH HHS / United States
K01 MH106710 / MH / NIMH NIH HHS / United States
U01 MH060220 / MH / NIMH NIH HHS / United States
R01 MH070884 / MH / NIMH NIH HHS / United States
T32 MH017119 / MH / NIMH NIH HHS / United States
R01 MH059575 / MH / NIMH NIH HHS / United States
R13 MH066849 / MH / NIMH NIH HHS / United States